South Sudan in Peril: Fragile Peace Deal Teeters Amid Rising Tensions

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is once again facing the threat of renewed violence as its fragile 2018 peace deal appears to be unraveling. The agreement, which ended a brutal five-year civil war claiming around 400,000 lives, now hangs by a thread following the arrest of opposition leader Riek Machar. Machar, who shares power with President Salva Kiir under a unity government, was detained this week, a move condemned by his party, the SPLM/A-IO. They warned that his detention could collapse the peace deal and reignite conflict in the country, which has never held national elections and remains sharply divided along ethnic lines.

The tensions have been exacerbated by the deployment of Ugandan troops invited by Kiir to aid in a conflict with local militias, a move Machar called a violation of the peace agreement in a letter to the UN. The situation escalated further after clashes in Nasir between government forces and the Nuer-affiliated White Army militia resulted in multiple casualties. Authorities claim Machar instigated these attacks, including one targeting a UN helicopter, though the militia denies any connection to him. Government officials accuse Machar of attempting to sabotage peace efforts to prevent upcoming elections.

International concern is mounting as fears grow of a return to full-scale civil war. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the situation as dangerously close to collapse, warning of consequences reminiscent of South Sudan’s past conflicts. Western countries including the United States, the UK, and several EU nations have urged Kiir to reverse Machar’s arrest and implement an immediate ceasefire. In response to the deteriorating situation, the U.S. and U.K. embassies have advised their citizens to evacuate, underscoring the severity of the crisis.

Diplomatic efforts are underway in a bid to contain the crisis. The African Union announced plans to send a delegation to the capital, Juba, to help defuse the situation. Kenyan President William Ruto’s envoy, Raila Odinga, also met with President Kiir, expressing cautious optimism about the potential for renewed dialogue. Odinga pledged to inform East African leaders of a possible roadmap toward long-term peace and stability, as regional and international actors scramble to salvage the crumbling truce.

Meanwhile, the country’s dire humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. According to the World Bank, political instability, violence, and poor resource management have deepened the suffering of the population, with over two-thirds living in extreme poverty. Despite being oil-rich, South Sudan is one of the world’s poorest nations and hosts over half a million refugees from neighboring conflict zones. The UN described the situation as “a country on the edge,” warning that the compounded crises could push the nation into a deeper abyss if immediate action is not taken.